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AbouRizk, S, Halpin, D, Mohamed, Y and Hermann, U (2011) Research in Modeling and Simulation for Improving Construction Engineering Operations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 843–52.
Alarcón, L F, Ashley, D B, de Hanily, A S, Molenaar, K R and Ungo, R (2011) Risk Planning and Management for the Panama Canal Expansion Program. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 762–71.
Bauer, E and Menches, C L (2011) Why We Need Renaissance Engineers: Golden Gate Bridge Seismic Retrofit Phase II Case Study. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 901–5.
Bittner, R B and Schmitt, R L (2011) Construction Engineering Process and Knowledge Requirements for Fostering Creative Design Solutions on Infrastructure Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 772–6.
Cleveland, A B (2011) Emerging Tools to Enable Construction Engineering. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 836–42.
Fischer, M and Adams, H (2011) Engineering-Based Decisions in Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 751–4.
Fisher, A D and Robitaille, A M (2011) Replacement of the Movable Span of the Thames River Bridge: How 19th Century Technology Impacted 21st Century Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 895–900.
Haycraft, W R (2011) History of Construction Equipment. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 720–3.
Howell, G A (2011) New Operating System for Project Management: Consequences and Opportunities. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 882–6.
Howell, G A, Ballard, G and Tommelein, I (2011) Construction Engineering—Reinvigorating the Discipline. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 740–4.
Jahren, C T and Johnston, D W (2011) Linkages between Construction Engineering Education and Research. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 887–94.
Jaselskis, E, Ruwanpura, J, Becker, T, Silva, L, Jewell, P and Floyd, E (2011) Innovation in Construction Engineering Education Using Two Applications of Internet-Based Information Technology to Provide Real-Time Project Observations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 829–35.
Kamat, V R, Martinez, J C, Fischer, M, Golparvar-Fard, M, Peña-Mora, F and Savarese, S (2011) Research in Visualization Techniques for Field Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 853–62.
Kannan, G (2011) Field Studies in Construction Equipment Economics and Productivity. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 823–8.
Lucko, G (2011) Modeling the Residual Market Value of Construction Equipment under Changed Economic Conditions. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 806–16.
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: Construction equipment; Construction costs; Regression analysis; Data analysis; Economic factors; Construction equipment; Cost analysis; Regression analysis; Data analysis; Economic factors;
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000279
- Abstract:
This paper reapplies a statistical model that was created prior to 2003 to forecast the residual value of used heavy construction equipment in the United States. The objective is to evaluate the performance of the model in the radically changed economy in the second half of the decade. The research hypothesis addresses whether the model is still usable and functional even almost a decade after the data occurred that determined its coefficients. This existing statistical model was a comprehensive multiple linear regression analysis for various categories of common types and sizes of equipment. Manufacturer, condition rating, and auction region are included as binary indicator variables. Statistically significant macroeconomic indicators can be used directly, but they provide new challenges as various governmental data series have been discontinued or modified, so that valid replacements must be found that range until the time of the economic crisis. Performing such a reanalysis faces technical challenges, including that several macroeconomic data series since the time of the original study have been discontinued or modified by their governmental sources. Moreover, new auction sales records mostly lack conditions and are devoid of locations. Various reconstructions are explored to still enable a valid reanalysis and, on validation, are used to augment the previous data series seamlessly with new data. Expert elicitation is used to select several equipment types that are likely to be affected by the recent economic downturn. The existing implementation tool is provided with the updated data for calculating forecasted residual values that are compared statistically with actual auction sales prices. Both practical and numerical problems are identified. The model consistently underestimates the actual values, indicating that they are less affected by the economic crisis or new variability is introduced from reconstructing its inputs. It is recommended that such model should be regularly updated, ideally by a professional organization.
Luth, G P (2011) VDC and the Engineering Continuum. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 906–15.
McTavish, R and Stallard, R (2011) Construction Engineering Today1. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 724–9.
Mitchell, Z, Hildreth, J and Vorster, M (2011) Using the Cumulative Cost Model to Forecast Equipment Repair Costs: Two Different Methodologies. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 817–22.
Monnot, J M and Williams, R C (2011) Construction Equipment Telematics. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 793–6.
Randall, T (2011) Construction Engineering Requirements for Integrating Laser Scanning Technology and Building Information Modeling. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 797–805.
Sanders, S A and Shapira, A (2011) Windmill Erection and Maintenance: Challenges for Crane Design. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 777–84.
Schexnayder, C and Anderson, S (2011) Construction Engineering Education: History and Challenge. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 730–9.
Schexnayder, C, Celaya, M, Recavarren, G C, Fiori, C and Jaselskis, E J (2011) Engineering with the Elements. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 755–61.
Shahandashti, S M, Razavi, S N, Soibelman, L, Berges, M, Caldas, C H, Brilakis, I, Teizer, J, Vela, P A, Haas, C, Garrett, J, Akinci, B and Zhu, Z (2011) Data-Fusion Approaches and Applications for Construction Engineering. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 863–9.
Stemp, B A and Walewski, J (2011) Lampson Transi-Lift Mobile Crane: Concept, Design, and Use. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 785–92.
Taneja, S, Akinci, B, Garrett, J H, Soibelman, L, Ergen, E, Pradhan, A, Tang, P, Berges, M, Atasoy, G, Liu, X, Shahandashti, S M and Anil, E B (2011) Sensing and Field Data Capture for Construction and Facility Operations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 870–81.
Tatum, C B (2011) Core Elements of Construction Engineering Knowledge for Project and Career Success. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 745–50.
Vorster, M C (2011) Teaching and Learning: The Critical Balance in Effective Education. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(10), 916–22.